Nigeria has revived the discourse on independent candidacy, with many asking whether it’s a viable path to enhancing democracy or just another false dawn. Independent candidacy, especially at the grassroots level, could revolutionize governance by allowing individuals to run for office without political parties’ backing—or restrictions—. This would empower local leaders to focus solely on community interests rather than partisan obligations. However, the question remains: is independent candidacy the perfect treatment for grassroots democracy, or is it simply a trick with more complications than benefits?
Local Government Elections: A Treat in the Making
With the newfound autonomy of local governments, the possibility of independent candidacy at this level becomes an intriguing prospect. Local governments are the closest tier of governance to the people, yet they are often overlooked and dominated by political party interests. Independent candidates could bring fresh perspectives to local governance, focusing on practical solutions for community development, free from the grip of party agendas.
However, the process must be free, fair, and transparent for independent candidacy to work in LG elections. Historically, local government elections conducted by state governments have been criticized for being opaque, with ruling parties often sweeping the seats. For this reason, it is imperative that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), rather than state governments, takes charge of LG elections. INEC, with its national infrastructure and expertise, is better equipped to ensure transparency, giving independent candidates a fighting chance. Allowing states to continue managing LG elections is akin to letting the fox guard the henhouse.
INEC has a track record of conducting elections on a national scale, which can translate well into local government elections. INEC’s involvement could restore credibility to LG elections, providing the right environment for independent candidates to thrive. In a country of over 200 million people, local government elections are where the true essence of community democracy lies. This level of governance is more manageable, with fewer logistical challenges and lower campaign costs. For example, in many LGAs, a few hundred to a few thousand voters may decide the winner, making campaigns more intimate and financially viable for independents.
The Numbers Game: Independent Candidacy at a Larger Scale – Trick?
While independent candidacy could be a treat at the LG level, the story becomes much trickier when considering larger elections, particularly for the presidency. Nigeria is vast, with over 176,400 polling units spread across 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory. The logistical and financial challenges involved in running an independent presidential campaign are staggering.
Let’s break down the numbers. If an independent presidential candidate needed to hire polling agents for every polling unit across the country, paying each agent a modest sum of 10,000 Naira, this alone would cost over 1.76 billion Naira this figure only covers the payment of polling agents. It does not include campaign costs like travel, media engagement, mobilization efforts, and other operational expenses. The cost of running a nationwide campaign would balloon far beyond what most independent candidates can bear without the financial machinery of a political party.
To put this in perspective, in the 2023 general elections, the two major political parties, the APC and PDP, collectively raised over 40 billion Naira for their campaigns. This financial power is out of reach for most independent candidates. Additionally, the complexities of Nigeria’s political landscape—ethnic, religious, and regional dynamics—necessitate strong party structures that can build coalitions across these divides. An independent presidential candidate would face the almost impossible task of reaching and convincing voters nationwide without these structures.
Comparative Insights: Independent Candidacy in Other Democracies
In more mature democracies, independent candidacy has succeeded in certain contexts. In the United States, independent candidates occasionally win local elections or secure seats in the House of Representatives, but very rarely do they contend for the presidency. Even with greater resources and media access, independents struggle to compete with the organized machinery of major political parties. In a country like Nigeria, with its vast size, diverse population, and complex political system, these challenges are even more pronounced.
For instance, in the 2019 presidential elections, Nigeria had 73 candidates on the ballot, including several independents. However, the top two candidates—Muhammadu Buhari (APC) and Atiku Abubakar (PDP)—received **97% of the total votes cast, leaving the other candidates, including independents, with negligible support. This demonstrates the difficulty independent candidates face in larger elections, where political parties dominate the landscape.
Conclusion: Trick or Treat?
Independent candidacy holds promise for local government elections, where the scale and costs are manageable, and voters are more directly connected to the candidates. With INEC overseeing these elections, independent candidates could bring much-needed innovation and accountability to grassroots governance. However, as the scale of the election increases, the viability of independent candidacy decreases dramatically. For a country as expansive and complex as Nigeria, independent candidacy in presidential or even gubernatorial elections is more of a trick than a treat.
The costs are prohibitive, the logistics overwhelming, and the political landscape dominated by well-established parties. At best, independent candidacy can be a tool for community empowerment at the grassroots. At worst, it becomes a mirage for those aspiring to national office without the resources to back their ambitions.
For the love of country,
Kunle Lawal
Executive Director, Electoral College Nigeria